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Are mortgage rates about to break out higher again?

Housing Wire

It’s not part of my 2024 forecast, but since the Federal Reserve likes playing with fire , let’s look at where we are with mortgage rates and their impact on weekly housing data. Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024.

Mortgages 514
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Weekly active inventory growth still too slow

Housing Wire

The best housing story in 2024 is that inventory is growing — both active inventory and new listings. With mortgage rates at the current levels, inventory is still below my expectations, but it’s still such a positive story that I had to discuss it on CNBC last week. This was my big talking point on CNBC earlier in the year.

Mortgages 417
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Fewer homes will take a price cut in spring 2024

Housing Wire

If the current trends continue into the strong seasonal pricing period, we will see fewer homes that are discounted before selling. I believe this was the most overlooked housing story of the last year because even as mortgage rates rose all the way to 8% , the home price cut percentage data was always about 4% lower year over year.

Mortgages 541
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Mortgage rates should drop below 7% as housing demand picks up

Housing Wire

Times can change quickly, which is why we created the weekly tracker so you have the information you need in real-time. For my 2023 forecast , my range for the 10-year yield was 3.21%-4.25% , which meant mortgage rates between 5.75%-7.25%. Last year, according to Altos Research , the seasonal peak for housing inventory was Oct.

Mortgages 542
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Why are existing home prices rising when sales are still so low?

Housing Wire

From NAR : The median existing home price for all housing types in March was $393,500, an increase of 4.8% Of course this isn’t the healthiest housing inventory story. But one positive reason for the low inventory is that homeowners have great financials and aren’t being forced to sell their homes out of stress.

Sales 477
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Is the spring housing market ready for the Fed’s déjà vu?

Housing Wire

Here is the interview I gave on CNBC on the day the Fed went hawkish, explaining why. Here is the interview I gave on CNBC on the day the Fed went hawkish, explaining why. A serious 10-year yield and mortgage rate talk My work on housing moves around the 10-year yield and the economics that move that.

Marketing 446
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Number of price cuts drops as housing inventory rises

Housing Wire

Last week, housing inventory grew and the number of price cuts fell, which is expected at this time of the year. I hope the next thing we see is housing inventory grow at the level it typically does in January or February instead of being delayed until March or April. So let’s hope for more home sellers in 2024. 2022 21.7%

Mortgages 524