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Why fewer homes are taking a price cut, even while inventory rises

Housing Wire

This calls into question a mortgage rate lockdown, as mortgage rates are also higher year over year. However, this data can move stronger in either direction when mortgage rates rise or fall aggressively. This is the price-cut percentage for last week over the last few years: 2024: 30.1%

Mortgages 510
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At last: Softer labor data sends mortgage rates lower

Housing Wire

The jobs report today which should move mortgage rates lower, demonstrates why it’s time for the Federal Reserve to land the plane. We had a solid job openings print this week and jobless claims are still near historic lows. The 10-year yield has had a crazy week, heading lower before the jobs report as we can see below.

Mortgages 488
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Why higher rates aren’t crashing home prices

Housing Wire

In 2022 it was all about finding a point in time when I thought mortgage rates would fall, which was key to understanding how the purchase application data would react to lower mortgage rates. In 2022, mortgage rates got as high as 7.37%, so the question was: how low do rates have to go for housing demand to get better?

Mortgages 546
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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory is negative YOY

Housing Wire

Housing inventory finally broke under 2022 levels last week. To give you an idea how different this year is from last year, last week in 2022, active listings grew 30,940 while this year they only grew 5,848. However, I need to put some context into what happened in 2022.

Marketing 450
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Housing Market Tracker: Banking crisis is a new variable

Housing Wire

The housing market was crazy again last week. Mortgage rates fell as the banking crisis got worse and purchase application data grew for the second week in a row, but the big question is: Did we hit the seasonal bottom in housing inventory? The economic data was OK last week. Weekly inventory increased by 1,734.

Banks 382
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Will Omicron variant stop first Fed rate hike?

Housing Wire

During this Thanksgiving week, we went from higher yields and the first Fed rate hike storyline to a big drop in bond yields and scary headlines on a new COVID variant, Omicron. Federal Reserve first rate hike? However, if the 2-year yield is above 0.56% and can rise toward 80 basis points, the first rate hike is on.

Mortgages 536
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Are existing home sales showing a housing bubble?

Housing Wire

Massive job losses and stay-at-home measures seem like a perfect storm for a disastrous housing market. That belief, however, assumes that one does not understand the two main drivers of housing: demographics and mortgage rates. COVID didn’t get the housing market, but it did pull a fast one on those pesky bears.

Sales 544