Housing Wire

OCTOBER 7, 2020

Don’t call it a comeback, Good demographics and low mortgage rates have been here for years, Rockin’ the bubble boys Puttin’ the bears in fear. I have used this in other articles and interviews, which runs in line with my big macro take that what drives the housing market are mortgage rates and demographics.

Staging 544

Staging Mortgages Sales As-is 544

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 8, 2021

My biggest concern for housing in the years 2020-2024 was that if the demographic push in demand picks up and total home sales get over 6. Inventory fades in the fall and winter and picks up in summer and spring. Not even 5% mortgage rates in 2018 budged this data line too much.

Bankruptcy 520

Bankruptcy Loans Sales Short sale 520

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

In the previous expansion, one of my long-term calls was that the MBA purchase application data will never hit the volume level of 300 until the years 2020-2024. Credit growth in the previous expansion was going to be slow and steady until our household formation data got high enough to get demand higher. We are up 43% since 2020.

Mortgages 496

Mortgages Sales As-is Marketing 496

Housing Wire

JANUARY 12, 2022

Unfortunately, that didn’t happen and recent data shows that we are at fresh new all-time lows in housing inventory, with mortgage rates and the unemployment rate both under 4% currently. Mortgage demand needs to slow down. Demand is growing and stable, excluding the COVID-19 pause. Houston, we have a problem.

Days on market 538

Days on market Loans Mortgages Sales 538

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2021

Even in the extreme conditions of COVID-19, my general premise on housing economics predicted that the two variables with the most influence — demographics and mortgage rates — would hold up the housing market. The 10-year yield and mortgage rates. That range dictated that mortgage rates would roughly stay between 3.5%-4.75%.

Mortgages 544

Mortgages Sales As-is Construction 544