Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

The labor market is showing signs of softness but is not breaking down yet, which has kept mortgage rates higher for longer. Since 2022, my guiding principle has been that the labor market is more important than inflation in determining mortgage rates. percent, the U.S. Below is the headline jobless claims data.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 30, 2024

All the housing market data for 2024 is in, and its fair to say that the housing market surprised us again! However, there are two big trends that stand out as we launch into 2025 affordability and sellers in the market. In the last few months, the market finally saw some sales growth over the previous year.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 23, 2024

It has been almost two months since mortgage rates spiked again, and my initial thought was this would tank housing demand. We had a positive 18-week period with purchase applications before mortgage rates started rising in September. Initially, the data showed more robust performance as mortgage rates approached 6%.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 15, 2025

Earlier this year, when mortgage rates soared to 7.26%, a cloud of worry hung over the housing market many feared that home sales would tumble in 2025, fueled by concerns about inflation and tariffs. But when it seemed doom and gloom would prevail, the 10-year yield dropped, pulling mortgage rates lower in a lovely slow dance.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 7, 2025

Today, the BLS jobs report showed that the labor market is getting softer, but it’s not breaking. This gives us a glimpse of what may happen over the next 10 months for mortgage rates, especially since, since Jan. Additionally, can mortgage rates decrease toward 6% to support builders? 14, we’ve seen them move lower.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 9, 2025

housing market is flashing warning signs reminiscent of 2008: rising household debt burdens, persistent inflation and home prices that are outpacing incomes. Unlike the pre-2008 era, stricter lending standards and robust regulations have kept mortgage delinquency rates low, significantly lowering the odds of a catastrophic collapse.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 16, 2025

The 10-year yield and mortgage rates have been on a wild ride lately, even testing my top-end forecast at 7.25%, but today, the 10-year yield fell after remarks by Fed President Chris Waller about whether the Fed would do even more rate cuts than the market was anticipating. It’s not booming. It’s not falling.”

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 17, 2025

Todays housing starts data exceeded estimates; however, a closer examination of the report with the builder confidence reveals that the recent rise in mortgage rates , approaching 7.25%, has negatively affected builder sentiment. Since late 2022, our analysis indicates that mortgage rates in the 6%-6.5%

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 16, 2024

Mortgage applications decreased 17% from one week earlier as mortgage rates surged, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association ’s (MBA) weekly application survey for the week ending October 11, 2024. The refinance index decreased 26% from the previous week and was 111% higher than the same week one year ago.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 21, 2024

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell played the Grinch last week for the housing market, sending mortgage rates higher after his remarks at the Fed presser on Wednesday. However, we need lower mortgage rates to grow sales in a bigger fashion in 2025. However, this year, mortgage rates rose during this timeframe.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 15, 2024

The statement was enough to raise mortgage rates to an even higher level, a sharp departure from the optimism lenders experienced during the September rally, which now seems like a distant memory. “We Meanwhile, the labor market “is now by many metrics back to more normal levels that are consistent with our employment mandate,” Powell said.

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Housing Wire

MAY 10, 2025

If someone had told me that home sales would remain firm this year despite mortgage rates ranging from 7.25% to 6.64%, I would not have taken that bet. However, amid all the chaotic economic headlines of 2025 so far, the demand for mortgages is holding steady, even with the higher rates. That would mean nearly 6% mortgage rates.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 19, 2024

Its late December so all the 2025 mortgage rate forecasts have been published. Most housing market analysts expect mortgage rates to spend the year with a 6 handle. The most optimistic predictions assume 2025 will see mostly low 6s for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Unfortunately, all of them are already wrong.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 3, 2025

Mortgage rates have reached the lowest levels of the year today as the 10-year yield dropped significantly on tariff news. The stock market reacted negatively to the news regarding tariffs, resulting in significant selling and a shift towards the bond market. Mortgage rates have reached their low point of the year.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 10, 2025

Reverse mortgage professionals have long sought financial advisors as referral sources, but might find that those professionals are not particularly willing to entertain the notion that the product would be right for their clients.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 8, 2025

Heading into the 2025 housing market, we havent had this many homeowners with mortgage rates over 6% since 2016. of outstanding mortgages, around 8.7 million borrowers, carry a mortgage with an interest rate over 6%. had these cheap mortgages. People with expensive mortgages are more likely to sell their house.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 30, 2024

Despite initial concerns that tariffs would push mortgage rates up to 8% and reduce housing demand, this week has brought some encouraging news. The 10-year yield has remained stable at a crucial technical level and even reversed direction, resulting in improved mortgage rates. This is what happened in the last two years.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 28, 2024

The most positive development in the housing market over 2024 has been the increase in active housing inventory , which is approaching the levels seen in 2019. Although those 2019 levels represent a five-decade low before COVID-19, the market was still functioning better than it did from 2020 to 2023. Weekly inventory change (Dec.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

Another jobs week has come to an end, and amid the chaotic headlines about job numbers, tariffs , and the leadership of the Treasury , mortgage rates remained calm. Better mortgage spreads are limiting how high rates can rise in 2025. Mortgage spreads refer to the difference between the 10-year yield and the 30-year mortgage rate.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 18, 2024

The market reacted badly to the FOMC statement and remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell during the Q&A presser, sending the 10-year yield and mortgage rates higher. What he got is higher mortgage rates again. Powell didn’t seem very confident while answering some questions about inflation and the labor market.

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Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2025

credit by one notch on Friday from Aaa to Aa1 raising concerns about mortgage rates. This downgrade has sparked a range of reactions among market participants, with some suggesting that it may be politically motivated, given the timing and challenges facing the Republican budget and tax cuts. Many argue that the U.S.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 21, 2024

Home prices firmed up in today’s existing home sales report , but we caught on to this trend two months ago with our Housing Market Tracker. As part of our tracker, we focus on purchase application data, and I am always looking to see what level of mortgage rates gives us growth in purchase apps. However, that didn’t happen.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 2, 2025

Today, the jobless claims data again showed why mortgage rates continue to be elevated, confirming that the labor market isnt breaking. The labor market is getting softer but hasnt broken yet, as it has before every recession post World War II. Mortgage rates are expected to range between 5.75% and 7.25%.

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Housing Wire

MAY 12, 2025

What will happen to mortgage rates now that China and the U.S. This raises the question: Is the de-escalation of the trade war good for mortgage rates ? The trade deals are just one factor, but I see three possible scenarios for mortgage rates in this environment. Mortgage rates have stayed between 7.25% and 6.55%.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 4, 2025

March figures to be a crucial month for gauging consumer interest in the 2025 housing market. The pace of home sales remains near a 30-year low point as home prices and mortgage rates keep potential borrowers in wait-and-see mode. But mortgage rates have posted an unusually large decline in the past week.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

What will the housing market look like in 2025? For a more comprehensive look, read our 2025 Housing Market Forecast covering home prices, home sales volumes and more. Mortgage rates continue to move higher and that’s impacting buyers. Frankly, it feels like the housing market is contracting a bit now in November.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

You would think this would cause the 10-year yield and mortgage rates to go lower. At first, this did happen, but after more digestion of the data, not only did the bond market give up all the early morning gains, but it headed higher for the day, which confused many. To summarize, the labor market is getting softer but not breaking.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 7, 2025

While the housing market seems like the least of our financial worries right now as stock markets are melting down around the globe, we track housing here at HousingWire, so it opens the question: how quickly could we see impact in the housing market and in which data would we see it first? Mortgage rates , of course.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 9, 2025

housing market is experiencing its largest-ever imbalance between home sellers and buyers, with an estimated 1.9 Two years ago, the market favored buyers. Other contributing factors include elevated mortgage rates , economic uncertainty and the mortgage rate lock-in effect, Redfin explained. million sellers compared to 1.5

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Housing Wire

MARCH 12, 2025

Mortgage applications increased 11.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from last week, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey for the week ending March 7, 2025. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 45.6% of total applications from 43.8% from 16.7%

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Housing Wire

APRIL 2, 2025

The bond market and stock futures rose when the initial discussions about the 10% tariffs hit the market. Since we believe in the close relationship between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates , we expect mortgage rates to decrease tomorrow if bond yields continue to decline. But the real game changer? Housing data!

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 21, 2025

Mortgage rates decreased again today on weak economic data, following last Friday’s similar drop in the 10-year yield. Furthermore, the mortgage spreads in today’s pricing are favorable. According to the latest quote from Mortgage News Daily , mortgage rates are now around 6.89%.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 10, 2025

Todays jobs report beat expectations, and in fact, the labor data was solid for jobs week, which means mortgage rates will stay elevated because its always about labor over inflation when talking about rates. In December 2023, the labor market reached a milestone, with non-farm payroll employment exceeding 157 million people employed.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

If this happens, will we see lower mortgage rates this spring? However, last week saw a decline in mortgage rates due to softer economic data, which led to an influx of money into the bond market as stocks sold off on Friday. Now lets look at the rest of the data impacting the housing market.

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Housing Wire

MAY 29, 2025

What happens when competitors pursue scale in a static yet strategically important market? The answer lies in a remote corner of the mortgage industry: subservicing. This business which involves handling mortgage payments, borrower communication and escrow administration on behalf of lenders has undergone consolidation.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2025

Unfortunately, we also had a huge spike in mortgage rates as the chaos of tariffs roiled markets, making U.S. So the question is, will this little bit of market momentum be able to hold up? I expect at least a couple more weeks of rising sales before we would see the impact of mortgage rates back above 7%.

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 24, 2024

The company’s Auction Market Dispatch for third-quarter 2024 included a survey conducted in late September of more than 140 active buyers on the platform. While 45% said current market conditions were not impacting their desire to purchase distressed property, 34% said conditions were detrimental to their decisions.

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