Home shoppers are feeling vastly different levels of competition depending on where they’re looking, and inventory is a critical factor. 

Buyers in the most expensive major U.S. metros are seeing seasonal price appreciation ramp up faster than anywhere else. Monthly home value growth is highest in the coastal California metros and Seattle – topping out at 3.3% in San Jose. After San Jose, typical home values rose fastest from February to March in San Francisco (2.7%), Seattle (2.4%), San Diego (2.1%), and Los Angeles (2%). All five comprise the most expensive markets among the 50 largest in the U.S. 

It’s not a coincidence that these five metros are also where the highest share of homeowners are likely locked into their mortgage rate.

Shoppers in these tech-heavy markets are still experiencing bidding wars as commonplace – they all ranked among the 10 major markets with the highest share of homes sold over asking price in February, the most recent data available. Buyers are competing over few choices – all of these metros have seen below-average recovery in inventory compared to pre-pandemic. Remember they were all fairly hot coming into the pandemic, so inventory was starting from a lower baseline.  

Meanwhile, appreciation is subdued in Southern metros where existing inventory has grown or nearly recovered since the outset of the pandemic – and has been helped along by robust injections of new construction. 

Metros with the slowest – but still fairly strong – growth are New Orleans, San Antonio, Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville; all clock in at just over 0.5% appreciation month over month. 

New construction is providing a pressure-relief valve in these metros, giving move-up buyers a place to go. New listings of existing homes have risen from pre-pandemic levels in New Orleans and Austin, while San Antonio and the Florida metros above have seen some of the smallest drop-offs. 

Recovering inventory in these areas has helped ease competition and bring price appreciation under control. New Orleans and San Antonio are two of the three markets where buyers actually have more choices than pre-pandemic, while each of the Florida markets are down just 9% – tied for the second-smallest drop. 

Nationwide, the divide between hot and cold listings persisted. In many markets where new and total inventory has recovered, buyers are gaining traction in negotiations. 

Homes that sold in March did so in just 13 days. That’s slightly slower than at this time in 2021 or 2022, but far faster than the pre-pandemic norm of 21 days on market – one less week to strategize a competitive offer. Buyers can expect well-marketed and competitively priced listings to fly off the shelves even faster as competition ramps up in April and May, and potentially beyond. 

But other listings are loitering. The median age of all listings on Zillow is 43 days. 

Relatively affordable markets in the Midwest as well as expensive coastal metros like Seattle and Washington D.C. have extremely short times on market for listings that sell – nearly matching those from the peak of the pandemic buying frenzy. Sold homes were listed for a week or less in 17 major metros. 

A similar story emerges when looking at price cuts vs. sold over list. More than one in five sellers cut their list price in March, the largest share for this time of year in Zillow data reaching back more than a decade. Places where cuts are the most common are Tampa, Phoenix, Jacksonville, San Antonio and Orlando. 

On the other hand, nearly 27% of homes sold over list price in February, compared to less than 19% in 2019. Sellers who price their home correctly, and amp up their real and digital curb appeal, shouldn’t have a problem cashing out and moving on. 

Home values

The value of a typical home in the U.S. is $355,696 – up 42.4% compared to pre-pandemic. The typical monthly mortgage payment, assuming 20% down, is $1,851. That’s up 108%, more than double, since before the pandemic. 

• Home values climbed month-over-month in each of the 50 largest metro areas in March. Gains were strongest in San Jose (3.3%), San Francisco (2.7%), Seattle (2.4%), San Diego (2.1%), and Los Angeles (2%).
• The slowest monthly growth was in New Orleans (0.5%), San Antonio (0.6%), Tampa (0.7%), Orlando (0.7%), and Jacksonville (0.7%).
• Home values are up from year-ago levels in 47 of the 50 largest metro areas. Annual price gains are highest in Hartford (12.7%), San Diego (11.8%), San Jose (11.2%), Boston (9.5%), and Los Angeles (9.3%).
• Home values are down from year-ago levels in three major metro areas: New Orleans (-7.6%), Austin (-4.1%), and San Antonio (-1.9%). Values have risen the least on the year in Birmingham (1.4%), and Jacksonville (1.7%). New construction in the South, including in Florida and Texas, has better kept pace with demand. That’s helped bring appreciation back down after extreme pandemic-era growth. 
• The typical mortgage payment is up 7.1% from last year.

New listings

• New listings increased by 15.5% month-over-month in March, and by 3.7% compared to last year.
• New listings are 25.4% lower than pre-pandemic levels. Much of the progress made in February to climb out of the deep pandemic inventory hole was lost. 
• Metros where the most sellers are jumping back into the market, compared to last year, are San Jose (up 18.4%), Dallas-Fort Worth (16.6%), and Tampa (15.4%). 
• Markets with the fewest new listings compared to last year are Boston (-17.2%), Pittsburgh (-14.2%), and Washington D.C. (-13.6%). 

Total inventory

• Total inventory (the number of listings active at any time during the month) in March increased by 7% from February.
• There were 12.2% more listings active in March compared to last year.
• Inventory levels are 36.4% lower than pre-pandemic levels for the month.
• Inventory rose annually in 36 of the 50 largest US markets, growing the most in Tampa (38%), Dallas (37.8%), and Orlando (33.2%). 
• Inventory fell the most year over year in the New York City metro area (-14.8%), Las Vegas (-14.4%), and Buffalo (-10.6%). 

Competition

Time on market: 

• Attractive listings that are priced correctly are selling quickly – listings that sold in March stayed on the market just 13 days before going under contract. That’s slightly slower for this time of year than in 2021 or 2022, but far faster than the pre-pandemic norm of 21 days to pending. 
• Median days to pending will likely continue to decline in April and stay low in May. 
• Mispriced or poorly marketed homes are taking longer to sell. The median age of all listings on Zillow in March was 43 days.

Price cuts and sold over list:

• Sellers are cutting prices at the highest rate since 2018, for this time of year. In March, more than one in five homes on Zillow had a price cut – about five percentage points higher than pre-pandemic norms. 
• Price cuts are most common in Phoenix (33%), Jacksonville (27.8%) San Antonio (27.8%), Orlando (26.9%), and Nashville (26.7%). 
• 26.6% of homes sold above their list price in February 2024, the latest data available. That’s compared to 24.2% that sold over list a year before, and 20.6% that sold over list at this time pre-pandemic. 
• Homes sold over list price most often in San Jose (69.4%), San Francisco (62.7%), Hartford (61.7%), Boston (49.3%), and Los Angeles (49%). 

Newly Pending Sales

• Newly pending listings increased by 17.7% in March from the prior month.
• Newly pending listings increased by 0.1% from last year.

Rent

• Asking rents increased by 0.6% month-over-month in March, now standing at $1,983. The pre-pandemic average growth rate for this time of year is 0.5%.
• Rents are now up 3.6% from last year.
• Rents fell, on a monthly basis, in just one major metro area: Pittsburgh (-0.2%). The slowest monthly growth is in Cleveland (0.1%), Salt Lake City (0.1%), Charlotte (0.1%), and Milwaukee (0.2%).
• Rents are up from year-ago levels in 48 of the 50 largest metro areas. Annual rent increases are highest in Providence (8.2%), Louisville (6.9%), Cleveland (6.5%), Hartford (6.4%), Boston (6.1%).

Read more about the rental market in Zillow’s March Rental Market Report.