Hitting A Moving Target

Business

10 minute read

October 24, 2022

Do today’s children still benefit from the usage of firearms when attending summer camp?

That’s a serious question.

As a society, we’ve increasingly bubble-wrapped our children to protect them from the cruel, cruel world, but given my kids are not yet camp-age, I don’t know what activities are offered out there in 2022.

When I showed up to Camp Kawabi in July of 1986, not yet six-years-old, with a minimum age requirement of seven (thanks Dad, you really toughened me up with that…) I didn’t know whether to be surprised or excited when a rifle was first thrust into my tiny, little arms.

This rifle merely fired pellets, but the activity was called “riflery” and these were guns!  They had a butt, a stock, a barrel, a muzzle, and most importantly: a trigger.

Was there anything that a six-year-old boy could possibly love more than a rifle?

I loved fencing and archery, but riflery was by far my favourite activity and I made sure to get on the range every single day for the entire month.

Toward the end of the month, one of my counselors challenged me to shoot a Coca-Cola can after he threw it in the air.

Now, I realize that this would never happen today (I also know that riflery is offered at Ontario summer camps, I was just being dramatic…), but in 1986, when you could get away with a lot more, my counselors didn’t really care.  They were probably stoned anyways…

But try as I might to shoot a tin can as it made its way up into the air, then down to the ground, it was impossible.

I could hit the targets with ease, with my little six-year-old fingers.  But a can in the air?  No dice.

My counselor, who was named “Maaco” after the 1980’s paint and collision repair shop, told me, “You might be able to ‘put two in the black’ while laying down, but stand up, point your rifle in the air, and you ain’t never gonna hit a moving target.”

Then he and his buddy tried and neither could do it.

I learned at an early age that hitting a moving target isn’t easy.

It’s particularly more difficult if you’re classically trained at hitting a stationary one.

I recall an experience in perhaps my second year of real estate which reminds me just how difficult it is to hit a moving target, although this target wasn’t black and white with rings and numbers, nor was I holding a rifle…

In today’s market, we’re familiar with the “offer date” just as we know that a request for “48 hours irrevocable” on a listing that has offers any time, is effectively a “soft holdback.”

But what if you had both?  What if you had a property that was listed with an offer date, but the offer date was for 12:00pm and the instructions were to provide a 48-hour irrevocable?

I was a relative newcomer so I simply proceeded as directed and thought nothing of it.

Some of you might throw up in your mouths a little here, but the property was listed for $229,900 (gulp!) and there were three competing offers.

We submitted an offer of $241,000, which was actually quite a competitive offer back then, even though it’s “only” $11,100 over the list price.  But this was very, very common in 2005.

Offers were due at 12:00pm and we submitted ours, with the 48-hour irrevocable, and the listing agent said, “I’ll get back to you.”  He added some version of the proverbial, “Don’t call us, we’ll call you,” and so I simply waited.

And waited.

And then I went to bed, since 12:00pm had stretched into the afternoon, into the evening, and the clock eventually struck twelve.

The next morning at around 10:00am, the listing agent called me and said, “So, we’ve reviewed all four offers, and we’d like to invite you to improve your offer.”

So we did.  We came up to $251,000, and left all other terms and conditions the same.

Then we waited.

And waited.

The irrevocable on the offer was still a day away!

So of course, that 10:00am phone call and a subsequent re-submission of the offer didn’t exactly scream “time is of the essence.”

That night at around 9:00pm, the listing agent called me and said, “One bidder has dropped out, so it’s down to three of you.  Would you like to improve your offer?”

So we did.  We came up to $260,000 even, and left all other terms and conditions the same.

We re-submitted at around 9:30pm and we waited.

And waited.

And the next day, around 10:00am, the listing agent called again and asked if we wanted to improve our offer.

My client said, “Tell him to go fuck himself,” and while I chose to re-word that, we ultimately let our offer ride.

We ended up buying the condo for $260,000 and an accepted offer was emailed to us with the Confirmation of Acceptance signed and dated at 11:59am.

I was young, naive, and inexperienced, and while I got the property for my client, I always look back at this experience as an example of how to let yourself get steamrolled in this business.

Now, could I have done anything to force the agent’s hand?  I suppose had I offered $260,000 two days prior, with a 4-hour irrevocable, ignoring that request for a 48-hour irrevocable, I would have at least given that agent something to think about.

This was my first experience in trying to hit a moving target in real estate.

What was moving?

The time of acceptance.

There are many, many examples in our current market of how buyers are frustrated by the constant moving targets.

You might think we’re in a buyer’s market and that it’s easy out there, it’s not.  And the reason it’s not is that sellers and listing agents simply won’t allow it to be.

Sometimes this is by design.  Other times, it’s just by bad luck.

Tara is an agent on our team and she recently experienced this “moving target” phenomenon.

A property was listed on Friday afternoon for $650,000, and while it looked way too good to be true, there wasn’t any catch here.  At least, not yet…

Tara’s clients had unsuccessfully bid on an identical property one month earlier, and that unit sold for $725,000.

This unit was listed for $650,000 with offers any time, but it wasn’t a trick.  It was listed by an agent from Sudbury who had no clue what he was doing.

“I have no clue what I’m doing,” is what he told her.  Seriously.  “I know nothing about Toronto,” he said.  “I haven’t been there in a very long time.”

Tara got her clients into the property within hours, and immediately submitted a full-price, unconditional offer on the unit.  She provided an irrevocable date of 11:00pm and had the offer submitted by 6:00pm.

The agent called her in a panic.

“This is all happening so fast,” he said.  “I had no idea things would move this quickly!”

He explained that he didn’t even know where his client was or when he could speak to her.

“She’s probably asleep,” he lamented, even though it was not even 7:00pm on Friday night.  “I haven’t spoken to her in a week, and I mean, I could try to drive to Niagara Falls tomorrow to meet her to present the offer, but, wow, gosh, I just don’t know…”

For those of you that are thinking this might be a rouse, trust me when I say that it wasn’t.  Subsequent conversations and actions (not to mention a deep dive on the agent) showed us that he was just out of his depth.

11:00pm came and went, without a word from the agent.

The next morning, he said, “I’m going to try to talk to her on Sunday night.”

This condo was under-priced, and not deliberately.  It was an incredible opportunity for our clients and even something well above the list price would still be incredible value.

At 10:00am on Saturday, Tara’s clients re-submitted an offer with an improved purchase price of $700,000 and gave a 6:00pm irrevocable.

The goal here was to shock the listing agent into action.  He clearly didn’t know what this property was worth, given he had priced it at $650,000 with no offer date and seemed surprised to get an offer “so quickly,” as he put it.  So we needed to motivate him to present this offer to his client as soon as possible, or we feared that the market would take notice and other offers would come in.

Tara told the listing agent, “This is an offer of $50,000 over your client’s asking price.  So get in a car and go meet her.  Present this to her and let’s get this done.”

And you know what?

He did!

The only problem was: by the time he got in front of his client on Saturday night, there were four other offers.

And in the end, the property sold for over $750,000 which was more than the previous sale of $725,000 one month prior.

This experience was frustrating as the target kept moving.

What target?

In this case, it was the presentation.

We were at the mercy of a part-time, semi-retired, ill-equipped agent who threw a property up on the MLS system on a Friday afternoon, thinking he could just pack up for the weekend and go fishing.

Tara did everything right.  She spotted the opportunity.  She touched base with the buyer-client in mere minutes.  She had a showing in place shortly thereafter and had an offer submitted within mere hours.

But the listing agent couldn’t present.

A live offer was left to expire.

The target kept moving, and moving, and by the time it was in sight, competition blew the price through the roof.

Another set of buyer clients of ours have been looking in the Beaches for some time.

They have a budget of $3 Million, but like most buyers, would likely remain shy of that.

An exceptional property was listed for $3.3 Million, which seemed a bit rich.  But even more odd was that there was an “offer date,” signaling that the seller and listing agent expected more money.

“Is this worth even $3 Million?” my client asked me.

I told him that I believed it was, and that this was probably $3.3 Million in February.  It was a box-checker, well-built, and there’s nothing comparable on the market right now so the scarcity adds value in today’s market.

The offer date came and went but the property didn’t sell.

Amazingly, the property was re-listed for $3.7 Million.

My clients just about died of laughter.

“How can this thing be worth $3.7 Million today?” they wondered.

We never even took a look at the house.  There just didn’t seem to be a point.

Sure, they could go as high as $3 Million, but the price was just raised, of all things!

Weeks went by, and my clients emailed me to ask, “That house has been adjusted in price again, this time down to $2.899M.  Is there any chance these people really want to sell at that price?”

No, there isn’t.

This was a second “offer date.”

Without any success at $3.7 Million, the house was re-listed for $2.899M with an offer date, perhaps in hopes that some fresh buyers come through the door, and perhaps they’re just so blown away by the house that they have no problem throwing a half-million over list at it.

Despite the property being priced within my clients’ budget, they didn’t want to go see it.

The target kept moving, and moving, and moving.

What target?

In this case, the target was price.

Over the last couple of months, I’ve talked quite a bit about the “games” played in real estate, and I realize I’ve confused the hell out of my readers by posting one blog that laments, “Wow, I can’t believe what this agent did,” and another blog explaining, “Hey, check out what I did.”

All the while, I’ve expected the readers to tell the difference between what’s allowed in one scenario, versus what isn’t in another.

The three scenarios I described above with respect to different “moving targets” have one thing in common: there’s nothing wrong with any of them.

And as frustrating as that may be, it’s an indisputable fact.

Why?

Because of something that I might not talk about enough here on TRB, but which, if you think about it, should be quite obvious: no seller is ever “forced” to do anything.

A seller doesn’t have to sell.

A seller can list for a certain price, but that doesn’t mean he or she has to accept an offer of that price, or more.

A seller can specify a particular date for offers to be submitted and reviewed, but that doesn’t mean the date can’t be moved up or back.

A seller can terminate a listing at any time.  A seller can re-list at any time as well.

Despite wishes to the contrary from the general public, a seller will never be “forced” into action, and that’s why these moving targets exist.

You can offer a seller a billion dollars on his or her house or condo but that seller is never forced to accept.

Even in a buyer’s market, the sellers have leverage.  That’s what’s frustrating buyers out there right now.

Buyers know that prices have declined since February, and yet many sellers are listing and re-listing, or refusing to reduce their expectations, but that’s their right.

Buyers know that sellers don’t have the leverage they once did, and buyers know that “offer dates” aren’t working they way they used to, but sellers can still under-list with offer dates.  That’s their right, even if it’s not going to work.

At the end of the day, the only way a deal is reached is if you have a willing buyer and a willing seller, same as always.

So while I’m seeing way more moving targets than ever before, I’m urging my buyer clients not to get emotional.  It’s easier said than done, since you think you’ve got a plan in place, only to have somebody else change the plan for you, but you can’t get emotional.

One final story here just to underscore that point…

Several months ago when the market was changing, a property came out with “offers any time” and my clients and I rushed in to see it.

It was a busy listing.  There was an appointment right before us and right after us, and when we made an offer that night, the agent said, “I need at least 24 hours on this offer.”

I told her we weren’t going to revise our offer, and she sent me a signed “Seller Direction Form” that specified 24 hours on all offers, which she probably had signed after our offer was submitted, but so be it.

We re-submitted our offer with 24 hours irrevocable – but only after our initial offer expired, so we knew they weren’t bluffing.

The next day, a group email was sent out to all the agents who had shown the property.

“Dear Colleagues: due to unexpected demand, we will now be reviewing offers next Wednesday evening at 7:00pm…..”

Total bullshit, right?

First, it’s offers any time.

Then, it’s offers with a 24-hour irrevocable.

Now, they’re holding back offers for a damn week!

Who wants to play a game where you have to hit a moving target?

My clients sure didn’t!  In fact, they pulled chute.

They were aghast at the actions of the sellers and the listing agents and cited “greed.”

But maybe the flip side of the coin with “greed” on it is “common sense?”

Whether or not the interest in this house was “unexpected,” the interest existed.  It only made sense for the listing agent to stop, assess the situation, and then employ a well-thought-out plan of action.  In this case, it meant setting an offer date.

My clients didn’t offer on the house because they were frustrated, and yet several months later, they will be the first to admit that their emotions got the better of them.

They told me recently, “We made a mistake.  There’s nothing we can do about that except learn and move on.  The next time, we’ll be cold and calculated.”

These “games” that I speak of on TRB might be frustrating, sometimes sketchy, and in many cases, ill-advised.  But that doesn’t make them wrong.

Don’t confuse my rants and displeasure in blog posts with a label of wrong-doing, because as I said before, a seller is never forced to do anything.

Just because a seller lists a property with offers any time doesn’t mean he or she is forced to accept the first one.  And just because a seller lists a property with offers any time doesn’t mean that he or she can’t set an offer date.

As a buyer, don’t be caught off guard by these moving targets, and don’t let emotion cloud your judgment.

Expect the unexpected in this market and you’ll be well-prepared…

Written By David Fleming

David Fleming is the author of Toronto Realty Blog, founded in 2007. He combined his passion for writing and real estate to create a space for honest information and two-way communication in a complex and dynamic market. David is a licensed Broker and the Broker of Record for Bosley – Toronto Realty Group

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9 Comments

  1. Marina

    at 9:45 am

    I often get frustrated at other people’s stupidity, and then I remember that being stupid is not illegal.
    Our close friends were looking at a vacation property in one of Ontario’s beach towns last year. Nice house, definitely did not need an update immediately, but not recently reno-ed either. Great location though, and it was end of season so they figured there would be time to decide if and how much work to do.
    The seller was, for lack of a better word, nuts. They submitted an offer for asking, and the seller hemmed and hawed. He let the offer expire. Then he got back to our friends two days later asking to resubmit. They did. He signed back at 50k more, which was not worth it at all. It was barely worth at the asking price. They walked. Seller relisted the property higher. Crickets. Then relisted lower, and the agent called our friends’ agent to see if they were still interested. They were not. Agent called again a week later, asking if they would offer 20 under asking. They did that. Again seller let it expire. And relisted again over the original asking. It was just bananas.
    As far as I know house never sold.
    But if you want to play games with your largest asset, it’s your right.

    1. cyber

      at 11:22 am

      Great example of “Play stupid games, win stupid prizes”

    2. Kyle

      at 1:22 pm

      Wonder if they had another offer, and were just looking for your friends to submit something (anything), to be able to say they now had multiple offers.

  2. Vancouver Keith

    at 8:14 pm

    If your recent blog posts prove anything, it’s that you need a solid real estate professional working for you, as a buyer or a seller. This business is a proper shark tank, and no one wants to be a bloody piece of meat. It’s not survival of the fittest, it’s survival of the most adaptable and with all the strategies out there you need the best representation you can find. The meek and uninformed will simply pay a heavy price to the market, unless they get lucky.

  3. Ace Goodheart

    at 9:49 am

    We are going to see a bit of a, I guess you could use the word “taking a bath” happening in the real estate markets in general.

    I noticed that the leader of the Federal NDP today was railing against the BoC putting in place another .75 point rate hike (which they have to do, otherwise we move out of step with the Federal Reserve and our currency becomes toilet paper).

    What we should see now is a complete stop in sales of homes for about six months to a year. Nothing will be selling. Reason is that sellers want the high prices of last February, but no one can afford to borrow the money anymore (borrowing a mil or two at 1.2 % variable is a whole lot different than doing the same at 6% fixed or even higher variable, which is what is going to happen).

    It will be interesting to see if our central bank has the backbone of say a Paul Volker, and will keep hitting us hard with rate increases, even if it means destroying the economy.

    Or will we move away from our current matching relationship with the Federal Reserve and become a kind of “Mexico North” with a Canadian dollar that is worth pennies against the US greenback?

    The biggest problem we face right now is not housing prices (as some left leaning folks would have us believe) but in fact a full blown currency crisis.

    If the Canadian dollar is allowed to crash against the US dollar, folks we owe money to will begin demanding payment in US dollars, which will trigger a currency crisis, IMF involvement and forced austerity measures. The BoC’s interest rate hikes are our only protection against this. Weak monetary policy will hurt us far more than interest rate hikes (and if you look at the results in any country where the Central bank has held down interest rates and printed money during times of hyper inflation, you know that lower income people do not benefit from this, and actually end up worse off than if the central bank in their country had taken a more hawkish stance).

    So it would appear that housing is in the cross hairs, is going to get hit hard, and the forces behind this are pretty much unstoppable. There will be a hard correction and folks are going to lose everything. But it has happened before. Remember the 1990s.

    History has a habit of repeating itself.

    1. Derek

      at 10:24 am

      Yikes…
      I’m going to reread that post with my rose coloured glasses….

      Now it just says steady housing prices for 6 months to a year! 🙂

      1. Ace Goodheart

        at 11:49 am

        I’m just hoping that Canadians, who usually are relatively intelligent people who can see through the fog of politics, are able to see the extreme hazards of politicians openly attempting to politicize and interfere with the operation of Canada’s Central Bank.

        1. Alexander

          at 1:39 pm

          Fed and BoC already screwed up last year with their temporary inflation. It was politicized then and I doubt that they became any wiser, maybe more scared of their failures now. Which is not a good sign.

          1. Ace Goodheart

            at 3:56 pm

            True.

            What Jagmeet is asking the BoC to do now is to lower rates and expand the monetary supply, in the middle of a bout of hyper inflation. If the BoC actually does that, you should dump your CDN $ and purchase US.

            On the other side of things we have the conservatives wanting to fire the head of the BoC, accusing him of money printing to support the Liberals.

            From the perspective of an outside observer, who is considering investing in CDN currency, things look very crooked and sketchy.

            The Mexicans prefer you pay them in US $ when you go down there as a tourist. They know the value of a Peso (ie, almost nothing).

            CDN $ is headed in that direction unless the BoC keeps up with these rate hikes.

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