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How the housing market will evolve in 2023

Housing Wire

This article is part of our 2022 – 2023 Housing Market Update series. They increased the Federal Funds Rate from nearly 0% at the start of 2022 to 4.5% in December 2022, its highest level since 2007 and its fastest rise in more than 40 years. in September 2022. They eased below 6.5%

Marketing 414
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Three trends to watch in 2023

Housing Wire

This article is part of our Housing 2022-23 forecast series. The last year has been a completely split housing market — one that started with the lowest inventory NAR has recorded dating back to 1999 and one with low mortgage rates. Due to the recent rise in mortgage rates, homeowners may just stay put.

VA loan 467
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Housing Market Tracker: Mortgage rates and inventory fall together

Housing Wire

The financial and housing markets are still trying to sort out the banking crisis and whether we have seen the last Fed rate hike in this cycle. These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%.

Mortgages 439
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Housing Market Tracker: Still no spring inventory lift

Housing Wire

Housing demand grew and inventory levels fell again while mortgage rates rose. Mortgage rates rose to 6.57%. The 10-year yield and mortgage rates Last week was interesting for the 10-year yield and mortgage rates. The chart below shows how the weekly 10-year yield ended with lower bond yields.

Marketing 474
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Housing Market Tracker: Banking crisis is a new variable

Housing Wire

Mortgage rates fell as the banking crisis got worse and purchase application data grew for the second week in a row, but the big question is: Did we hit the seasonal bottom in housing inventory? Weekly inventory increased by 1,734. This assumes the spreads are wide as the mortgage-back securities market is still very stressed.

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Wage growth downtrend kills 1970s inflation fear

Housing Wire

Given Friday’s job report , those who have been concerned with entrenched 1970s inflation — which would lead to double-digit mortgage rates — can put their disco shoes back in the closet. As you can see in the chart below, year-over-year wage growth peaked early in 2022 and has been in a clear downtrend for some time now.

Mortgages 472
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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

In the summer of 2020, I talked about how the housing market would change, but it needed the 10-year yield to break over 1.94%, which roughly means 4% plus mortgage rates. Since the start of October, the year-over-year declines have been in a range of 39% -42% each week. Purchase application data is now below 2008 levels!

Mortgages 472