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Why higher rates aren’t crashing home prices

Housing Wire

They went all in during COVID-19 in 2020, doubled down in 2021 as the forbearance crash bros but really bet the farm on a massive home-price crash in 2023 after the most significant home sales crash ever in 2022. In 2022, mortgage rates got as high as 7.37%, so the question was: how low do rates have to go for housing demand to get better?

Mortgages 545
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How the housing market will evolve in 2023

Housing Wire

This article is part of our 2022 – 2023 Housing Market Update series. They increased the Federal Funds Rate from nearly 0% at the start of 2022 to 4.5% Long-term mortgage rates responded by rising from 3.25% in early 2022 to over 7.25% in October 2022, more than doubling. They eased below 6.5% The overall U.S.

Marketing 411
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Wage growth downtrend kills 1970s inflation fear

Housing Wire

Given Friday’s job report , those who have been concerned with entrenched 1970s inflation — which would lead to double-digit mortgage rates — can put their disco shoes back in the closet. As you can see in the chart below, year-over-year wage growth peaked early in 2022 and has been in a clear downtrend for some time now.

Mortgages 466
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Housing Market Tracker: Mortgage rates and inventory fall together

Housing Wire

The financial and housing markets are still trying to sort out the banking crisis and whether we have seen the last Fed rate hike in this cycle. These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%.

Mortgages 437
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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory is negative YOY

Housing Wire

Mortgage rates rose last week after the better-than-anticipated jobless claims data but even with higher rates, we also had a third week of positive purchase application data. As you can see in the chart below, 2023 inventory growth is very slow compared to 2022.

Marketing 451
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The 2023 housing market is at odds with itself

Housing Wire

On the one hand, elevated mortgage rates continue to erode buyers’ purchasing power, and in some markets, home prices are falling. Sales and new pending contracts are below pre-pandemic levels. Inventory has increased from a year ago but in most markets, it is still well below pre-pandemic levels. Mortgage rate fatigue.

Marketing 387
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You can’t buy what’s not for sale in the housing market

Housing Wire

And, unfortunately, sellers are not selling in today’s higher mortgage rate environment. The primary factor holding back today’s housing market is not lack of demand, but a dearth of supply. This article is part of our ongoing 2023 Housing Market Forecast series. The result is fewer sales.

Sales 347